NFL Weekend Reflections
Betting on NFL games is not guesswork. It requires time, patience and careful analysis. Here are some notes to keep an eye on for NFL games this weekend.
Ravens at Bengals: Excitement and interest are more important than raw stats in analyzing this game. For example, the Ravens have had a terrible season, especially on offense. If you look at their schedule, they only got “up” to play a few times this season. Pittsburgh is a great division rivalry game for this club. They dared to play in Pittsburgh last month and lost 20-19 as underdogs with two touchdowns. Then the Ravens went flat, losing 21-9 to Cincinnati and 30-3 to Carolina (0-2 ATS). Then last week they flared up again when the Steelers came to town, pulling off a 16-13 upset in overtime. So will they pack it up on Sunday? After all, Baltimore is 3-7 overall and isn’t going anywhere. Their opponent, Cincinnati, is out for an emotional game, losing a 45-37 thriller at home to the undefeated Colts. Will they be awake? Or emotionally exhausted? Chances are they’re up there, and the Bengals certainly have a lot more versatility and offensive balance than Baltimore. Keep in mind that the Ravens really only played against three versatile offenses (Colts, Bengals, Jaguars) and went 0-3 ATS. I left out his two games against Pittsburgh because the Steelers were without quarterback Ben Roethlisberger both times. Baltimore is also 0-5 SU, 1-4 ATS on the road, where they are being beaten by an average of 24-11.
Patriots at Chiefs: New England is on a two-game winning streak, but they needed end-of-goal position in the final seconds to get past both Miami and New Orleans. And this secondary is still banged up, giving up a ton of yards. The Patriots will be without Corey Dillon again, the offensive line is still playing without its starting center and has two rookies there. The Pats are also very short at wide receiver, with David Givens out of the game last week and out of practice this week. Kansas City is 4-2 SU/ATS in the last six games and, at 6-4, there is a sense of urgency if they want to make the playoffs. Also note that Pats coach Bill Belichick has not been with the team this week, attending his father’s funeral.
Panthers at Bills: An interesting betting line, as Carolina is 2-3 ATS on the road and 3-5 ATS as a favorite. Public perception is certainly a big part of this, as the Bills were embarrassed 48-10 in San Diego last week. Still, note that Buffalo is 0-5 on the road, but 4-1 SU/ATS at home! They allow only 13 ppg at home.
Bears at Bucs: The reason to pay attention to this game is Tampa Bay’s defense. They are still ranked very high in the NFL, but in the last three games they have given up an amazing 34, 35 and 27 points! What gives? Perhaps just as surprising is that they have won 2 of those games.
Dolphins at Raiders: One game doesn’t make a season! Miami is 2-7 SU/ATS since beating Denver in Game 1. Public perception has certainly caused Miami to be overrated because of that season-opening win and the reputation new coach Nick Saban brings after winning the national title at LSU just two years ago. By the way, despite Oakland’s ups and downs, the Raiders are 2-0 SU/ATS as the favorites.
Steelers at Colts: The best game of the weekend takes place on Monday night. Pittsburgh is ranked ahead of the Colts in total defense, No. 6 vs. No. 8. What will be interesting is the Steelers’ offensive line and their deep running game behind Jerome Bettis, Duce Staley, Willie Parker and Verron Haynes. They’ve been rotating all four, Denver-style, and Indy has been weak against the run at times this season. Notice that the Bengals rushed for 164 yards over the Colts, 6.3 yards per carry last week! If the Steelers want to beat the Colts 10-0, they’ll need offensive balance, which means they need a healthy quarterback Ben Roethlisberger back. Tommy Maddox is useless. The Colts are the 17th team in the 86-year history of the NFL to open a season 10-0, and only the ninth since 1970. Still, it’s hard to believe Indy is just 1-3 against the spread at home, but they are. Enjoy the post-Thanksgiving games feed! Good luck, as always… Al McMordie.