Ness Notes (CFB Week 7)
Will CFB Week 7 be a “lucky seven” for CFB’s second-ranked AP team? So far, being ranked #2 in the writers’ poll hasn’t been a good position. In Week 1, No. 2 Notre Dame narrowly escaped in Atlanta against Ga Tech, 14-10. The poor performance saw the Irish drop to No. 4 in next week’s poll. The new No. 2 in the nation was Texas, which promptly lost at home to No. 1 Ohio State, ending the defending champions’ 21-game winning streak.
Note Dame was back at No. 2 the following week and, of course, was crushed by Michigan at South Bend, 47-21. Auburn ranked second in Week 4 and beat Buffalo (38-7) and South Carolina (only 24-17) in successive weeks, but last Saturday became the first top-10 team to lose to a unranked opponent in 2006. when the Tigers lost at Arkansas, 27-10. Florida is the latest AP No. 2 and, luckily, in this “never catch a breath” conference, the Gators must travel to Auburn on Saturday night to face the Tigers (now ranked 11th).
The Florida/Auburn game (the Gators are currently a two-point favorite) happens to be the only game between AP’s top 25 opponents on this weekend’s schedule. The big news coming this weekend will of course be the release of the first BCS ranking of the season (Sunday). The AP is no longer a component of that ranking, so the Gators might not find themselves in second place (behind Ohio State) on Sunday, even if they win at Auburn. So again?
The Pac-10 is actually the No. 1 conference in three of the six computer rankings (picture that!), which means USC (No. 2 in the coaching and Harris polls) could very well be No. 2 if the Trojans beat Arizona State (if they don’t, they should be excluded from ANY bowl appearances this year!). It should be noted that last year was the first time since the beginning of BCS (1998) that the two schools ranked first and second in the initial BCS standings (in LY’s case it was USC and Texas), they actually ended up playing in the national title game, so it might not be a big deal which school is No. 2 on Sunday.
The school that can’t wait for the first BCS ranking to come out is Boise State (think Dan Hawkins misses that blue turf?). The Broncos are No. 19 in the coaches’ poll and No. 21 in the Harris poll, but they average No. 10 in computers. Under this year’s new rules, a non-BCS conference school need only finish in the top 12 (it was previously in the top six) to qualify for a BCS bowl offer. The Broncos can be a top 10 team on Sunday. West Virginia is a team that may be dreading Sunday’s early qualifiers. The Mountaineers are No. 5 in both human polls (I love that term) but have a pathetic computer average of just 17.
There were 13 undefeated Division IA schools entering last weekend’s action (all but Rutgers were in action) and Auburn wasn’t the only undefeated team to lose. They also lost for the first time in 2006 to Georgia, Oregon and Wake Forest. That leaves nine undefeated in Division IA and all nine will play this weekend. The teams have a combined ATS record of 30-14-2 (68.2 percent), so the point spread hasn’t been a great tie.
Nine schools were winless entering last weekend’s game (only Eastern Michigan did not play), but only Utah State came out on top, beating Fresno State 13-12. The remaining eight winning teams, who own a combined ATS mark of 12-29-2 or 29.3 percent, will play this weekend. Temple, owners of the nation’s longest active losing streak (18-game losing streak), begins with a Thursday night game against Clemson in Charlotte.
In Temple’s case, the point spread has been an equalizer, as the Owls are a much more respectable 7-10-1 ATS during their 18-game losing streak. Temple is a 45-point dog on Thursday night and since this game is being played at a neutral site (home of the Carolina Panthers), the Owls won’t be able to extend their 18-game losing streak (also their longest active). among Division IA schools), only his 18-game losing streak overall.
Behind Temple in the losing department are Colorado with 10 straight losses (2-7 ATS) and Stanford (eight straight losses with a 2-6 ATS record). Colorado is home to Texas Tech on Saturday (the Red Raiders are 7-point favorites) and Stanford is home to Arizona (Wildcats are 3 1/2-point favorites). Following Temple with the most road losses are San Jose State (14), Duke (14), and UNLV (12). However, all three schools play at home this weekend.
No. 1 Ohio State owns the longest active winning streak in the nation at 13-game winning streak (12-1 ATS, since last week didn’t cover that streak!) and West Va is right behind the Buckeyes at 12-game winning streak. (10-1 TTY). Ohio State is at Michigan State (Buckeyes are 14-point favorites) and West Va hosts Syracuse (Mountaineers are 25-point favorites). USC has been shaky the past two weeks, beating Washington State in Pullman (28-22) on Sept. 30 and beating Washington at the Coliseum last Saturday, 26-20.
However, those two unimpressive wins continued two very impressive winning streaks for the Trojans. The Sept. 30 win at Pullman gave USC its 18th straight road victory (just 10-8 ATS) and last Saturday’s win gave them a 29-game home winning streak (20-9 ATS). Both streaks are the longest active among Division IA teams. As mentioned above, USC hosts Arizona State on Saturday and is favored by 19 points. FYI…ASU (under Dirk Koetter) is 0-11 against Pac-10 teams in games played in California.
Louisville has won 14 straight at home (13-1 ATS) to rank second behind USC and will host Cincinnati on Saturday (cards favored by 25 points). Florida has the third-longest home winning streak (13) but is playing at Auburn, but Penn State will put its 11-game home winning streak (8-2 ATS) on the line when hosting No. 4 Michigan on Saturday for the night. The Wolverines (minus Mario Manningham) are favored by 5 1/2 points.
With Ohio State not being covered last week, none of the nation’s remaining nine unbeatens are without at least one point loss. However, four schools remain undefeated ATS. Central Michigan at 3-3 SU is 6-0 or 5-0-1 ATS, East Carolina at 2-3 SU is 5-0 ATS, Wisconsin at 5-1 SU is (4-0-1 ATS) and El San Jose’s state at 3-1 is 3-0 ATS.
By contrast, San Diego State (both 0-5 SU and ATS), is the only winless team (of eight) that is also a winless ATS. Fresno State (1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS), La Tech (1-4 SU and 0-4 ATS), Marshall (1-4 SU and 0-4 ATS) and North Carolina (1-4 and 0 -4 ATS). SU victories from La Tech, Marshall and North Carolina this year have come in unranked games against Division I-AA opponents.
final thought
There can be little argument that zero is a “definite” number! Heading into this weekend’s action, these schools possess some defining zeroes! Colorado State and Iowa have yet to recover a single fumble in 2006, the only two schools among 119 in Division IA that can claim that. Only three schools have yet to intercept a pass in 2006. La-Lafayette has zero interceptions while facing 148 attempts, Arkansas has yet to intercept a pass in 141 attempts, and Fresno State has yet to find a ‘pick’ in 138 attempts.