Can you handicap and win your Kentucky Derby horse racing bets?
Some people think that it takes too much money to win the great prizes that the Kentucky Derby offers and therefore only the rich can win. Others believe that there are simply too many comparable horses to make an effective bet. I have found that none of these are necessarily true.
Enter the pools
What is a swimming pool? In mutual bets, a pool is the collective dollar amount of all bets on a particular type of bet. The Kentucky Derby has the largest playing groups of all North American horse racing. For example, the Derby Total Mutuel Pool last year was $ 47 million for all types of bets.
Last year, Exacta Pool was $ 21 million, Trifecta was $ 25 million, and Superfecta Pool was $ 8.5 million, all of which are huge. The Exacta and Trifecta groups are larger because they are easier to hit, and since they are won, the payouts are not as large as the Superfecta, despite its 1/3 size.
To illustrate, last year’s payments were: Exact $ 152, Trifecta $ 2337, Superfecta $ 202,569. You can see that Trifecta is the most popular bet because it can make you earn good money without spending too much, but the Superfecta payout was huge and probably provided a life-changing score for many.
The highest Super on record was in 2005 when Giacomo won 50-1. The $ 1 super paid and astronomical $ 864,000! That means (after the takeout track) there were only 7 winning tickets out of the $ 7.4 million wagered. There were no doubt at least 1 or 2 rag-for-the-rich stories that year.
Get some food to go
This is the percentage of the stake pool that the track draws for itself and uses to pay for operating costs, taxes, and winnings. They usually run around 17% for win / place / show and 20-25% for exotic bets (Exact / Tri / Super) and vertical bets (Pick 3, Pick 4, etc.)
Churchill Downs is a particularly good betting track, as it has the lowest amount of takeout across the board in North America, at 19%. This is another reason why the Derby can be so profitable.
All the pretty horses
The Kentucky Derby also has the largest field of all North American dirt races, with 20 horses, sometimes fewer, after some are deemed unfit to run before the race. Such a large field can be a chaotic race, and with so many horses, how can you choose which one to bet on?
Some people will simply bet on a horse because they like the name, or the colors that the horses use, or the number of their saddle, or simply because they think the horse is pretty. Some win those bets too, but let’s face it, that’s pure luck. To be effective, you need a system.
Years ago, while busy on certain online horse racing forums, a man claimed that he had a system, where a horse had to meet a certain dozen criteria to qualify as the Derby champion. He said it had worked every year for several decades. Well, that year his system failed, as the winner did not meet some of his criteria.
Another rider decided that his system had some merit, but a couple of those criteria were somewhat random, and while most Derby champions had them, they were not concrete. He did some more research and found more factors that more than 95% of Derby champions had in common.
Furthermore, he found that the Derby champion who broke some of his rules could have easily been accounted for with some solid calculations of speed figures that could be used as a yardstick.
GET THE NETWORK
After that, he investigated and found dozens more factors that could be used as criteria that were very common among Derby champions. Some were statistically tested; others were wise betting angles. You added them to your spreadsheet as irrelevant criteria.
What is GRID? It is a very large spreadsheet, combining critical and non-critical criteria, speed figure calculations, performance data, dose and pedigree information, as well as the regular information that you will find on previous performance forms such as DRF or BRIS.
Numerical scores are assigned to aggregate scores for critical and non-critical criteria, and for speed calculations.
It does! 11 of the past 13 Derby champions achieved both the required high critical score and combined maximum speed calculations on the GRID. A twelfth winner (2009 Mine That Bird 50-1) could be determined by having the highest pace calculation. Don’t waste time trying to figure out Giacomo.
Regardless, 12 out of the last 13, or even 11 out of 13 is not bad, right? Considering just one of Trifecta’s easiest payouts, it could cover the rest of your Derby bets for over 12 years. In the last 10 Derby races, 4 Trifectas have paid 5 digits, and one even 6 digits (again, Giacomo).
On top of that, it probably would have worked for many decades earlier if it had been invented still, as the criteria are based on data dating back several decades. Some factors even reach 137 years of life of the Derby.
Last year, after further refining the GRID, it was automatic to pin Super Saver as the winner, with the highest critical score, total score, and composite speed figures. This resulted in an easy $ 2300 Trifecta, not to mention a solid win / place / show payout at 8-1.
Due to the large reserves mentioned above, the Derby usually has large payouts. Let’s examine the payouts for the last 10 issues. The Trifecta had 4 digits twice, 5 digits 4 times, and once reached 6 digits.
The $ 1 superpay was 6 digits 3 times, almost 4 times, and it only failed to reach 5 digits once. Because the playing field has recently leveled with the rise in drug testing, the race results have become a bit more random, leading to higher payouts. But you can also take advantage of that.
You can win too!
To take advantage of this advanced handicap system, you must have a GRID. This is available at HorseRaceBetWin.com. It is the only grid that combines all of these powerful criteria and effectively ranks horses based on speed and critical historical criteria. There is simply no competitor.
You can get the GRID and win 9 out of 10 times, or bet on the horses based on their name, number or color, and maybe get 1 out of 10. Your decision.