Great handicap races like Belmont, the final jewel of the Triple Crown

When I have run-of-the-mill races, like claim races and allowance races, I often look for horses that aren’t in the race to win. By looking at the races the horse has run, a handicapper can often spot the horse being trained or exercised. Trainers regularly use racing to condition their horses and work to improve their racing ability by working on their bad habits.

For example, if a horse has been stubborn in racing and refuses to slow down, a trainer might put a strong, armored jockey on the horse with express instructions to slow down and make him pick up speed. Sometimes you will see how the rider drives those horses back. Fighting often puts the horse out of the race. What may at first appear to be a jockey “launching” a race is really just a jockey following instructions to teach the horse a racing lesson.

There are trainers who condition their horses by racing them. The horse may be coming back from a break and needs some “tighteners” as they are called to regain the fire and muscle tone needed to win races. However, in a major stakes race, you will rarely see a horse running for training or conditioning. Most of the horses in a stakes race are in it to win it. That means you have to take each one seriously, even if it seems over the top.

If the trainer is a good trainer who knows his trade, he will only put a horse in a race because he knows he has a chance. If a horse is properly bred for distance and surface and appears to be improving, a trainer may enter the runner over his head because he suspects the horse has a great run on him. There have been some notable surprises in Grade 1 racing. There have even been upsets in each of the Triple Crown races, the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes.

While anything is possible on any horse, the Triple Crown and Breeder’s Cup races are logical places to look for an unlikely gamble. Disadvantaged horses with a good trainer and jockey are a reasonable proposition in a Grade 1 race, especially if you have another reason to back such a horse. If the price is right, don’t be afraid to bet against the favorite with a long shot that can upset the field.